伊素婉,海外之声 | 欧央行副行长:欧洲经济形势和欧央行货币政策态度,逆天邪神

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导读

近期,欧洲地区的经济发展不尽善尽美。制造业呈现显着的增速下降状况,长时刻的不确定性也对商业和顾客的决心发生较大影响,并且这些要素将会继续影响欧洲一段时刻,欧央行也据此调低了其对欧洲增速的猜测。但长时刻来看,欧央行以为在欧洲金融局势逐步康复、工作局势转嫂子的引诱小说好和全球经济缓慢回升等多个要素的支撑下,欧洲地区经济发展将可以回到正常水平。

而在通货膨胀方面,欧央行猜测在未来几个月内,欧洲的通货膨胀率将会坚持在现阶段的水平,到2019年底,结合全球对油价走势的猜测,预期通胀率会略有下降,而2020年又重回1.5%左右的通胀率水平。

依据以上经济局势,欧央行决议坚持习惯性的方针情绪,并推出一系列东西用来完成方针方针。首要,调整了对欧央行要害利率的前瞻指引方针,包含调控时刻最短继续至2019年底,添加依据阶段状况习惯性地调整货币方针的内容,保证方针情绪继续且不受时刻影响。在此根底上,欧央行财物购买方案将在很大程度上继续影响经济发展,保证在进步欧央行要害利率后有满足的流动性和货币方针调整空间。此外,欧央行还推出了TLTRO-III(定向长时刻再融资操作)维护银行的假贷状况,以支撑银行为根底的货币方针传导机制。而一直到2021年3月,欧央行都会继续固定利率借款操作,作为银行的流动性后备支撑。

在整个过程中,欧央行将不断调整各项方针东西,保证通胀率水平向货币方针委员会拟定的通胀率方针接近。

作者 | 路易斯德金多斯(Luis de Guindos),欧洲中央银行副行长

英文原文如下:武汉铭信汇

Monetary policy in the euro area

Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at Asociacin para el Progreso de la Direccin (APD), Madrid, 18 March 2019

Recent economic developments

In recent months, incoming euro area data have continued to be weak and the economy has grown below expectations.

That is, euro area real GDP increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in t魁岐佳园he fourth quarter of 2018 (according to preliminary estimates), which was slightly up from 0.1% in the quarter before, but well below the 0.4% growth observed in the first half of 2018.

The continued weakness, particularly in the manufacturing sector, reflects the slowdown in external demand, compounded by some country and sector-specific factors.

The global economy is expanding at a more modest pace. According to IMF estimates, global growth has moderated to 3.7% in 2018 (from 3.8% in the previous year), and is expected to slow to 3.5% in 2019. Important euro area trading partners, such as China, show signs of a maturing economic cycle, and this has affected euro area exports. Net 伊素婉,海外之声 | 欧央行副行长:欧洲经济局势和欧央行货币方针情绪,逆天邪神exports recovered in the fourth quarter of 2018 (according to preliminary estimates), but weaker exports were the main factor behind the steep growth slowdown observed in the third quarter.

In the euro area, the slowdown in growth has been particularly visible in the manufacturing sector. Euro area industrial production, excluding construction, declined by 1.4% quar95117怎样转人工ter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, with the slowdown being widespread across sectors and most major economies. Purchasing managers’ survey data on manufacturing production also moved into contractionary territory last month. Growth in services, in contrast, proved to be more resilient.

Country and sector-specific facto裸体直播rs have been playing a role as well. Temporary issues in the automotive sector due to new regulation, for example, caused industrial production to fall particularly strongly in some euro area countries. These idiosyn伊素婉,海外之声 | 欧央行副行长:欧洲经济局势和欧央行货币方针情绪,逆天邪神cratic factors are only fading slowly, and have been weighing on growth for longer than anticipated.

Meanwhile, persistent uncertainties have left their mark on business and consumer confidence. These uncertainties relate to geopolitica伊素婉,海外之声 | 欧央行副行长:欧洲经济局势和欧央行货币方针情绪,逆天邪神l factors, such as the state o喜马拉亚星f play of the Brexit negotiations, the continued threat of trade protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets. By denting confidence, uncertainty might affect real economic variables, such as capital goods production, which declined strongly last quarter, possibly as a result of this reduced confidence.

All these elements indicate that the moderation in the pace of 伊素婉,海外之声 | 欧央行副行长:欧洲经济局势和欧央行货币方针情绪,逆天邪神the euro area economic expansion will likely extend into the current year. This is also reflected in our staff macroeconomic projections. In fact, growth for this year has been revised downwards to 1.1%, which is 0.6% lower than anticipated in the December forecast.

The fundamental factors supporting the euro area expansion remain broadly in place, however.

Looking ahead, the effects of the idiosyncratic factors currently weighing on economic growth are expected to unwind, albeit at a slower pace than initially foreseen. For instance, recent data on motor vehicle production show signs of normalisation, and 张藤子consumer confidence recently edged up again.

Beyond more temporary fluctuations, the euro area expansion will continue to be supported by favourable financing conditions, further gains in employment and rising wages. Also, the ongoing yet somewhat more modest expansion in global activity should continue to support euro area growth.

In fact, bank lending rates to euro area firms an憋尿赏罚d households remain close to their historical lows. The euro area unemployment rate currently stands at its lowest level in more than a decade, and the wage increases that result from tightening labour markets should continue to underpin household income and private consumption. On the external side, preliminary esti羽加立mates for the fourth quarter of 2018 point to a pickup in net exports after a very weak third quarter.

For these reasons, GDP growth in the euro area is expected to remain sound in the medium term. Accordingly, our staff projections expect euro area GDP growth邻居古镇 to reach 1.6% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021, which is largely unchanged from the December forecast round.

The risks surroun宝瑞峰ding euro area growth are still considered to be tilted to the downside, on account of the persistence of the uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.

Turning to inflation, HICP inflation increased to 1.5% in February, from 1.4% in January (according to preliminary estimates). This slight increase was mostly driven by higher energy and food price inflation, while measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted. Headline inflation is likely to remain around current levels in the coming months, before declining towards the end of year on the basis of the financial market’s outlook for oil prices.

In line with this, our latest projections foresee annual HICP inflation declining to 1.2% in 2019, before recovering to 1.5% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2021.

Compared with the December forecast round, the outlook for HICP inflation has been revised downwards across the projection horizon. This downward revision reflects, in particular, the more subdued near-term growth outlook, which is delaying the adjustment of inflation to our aim.

Also for inflation, supportive factors continue to be in place that will lift inflation above this year’s muted levels in the more medium term.棨怎样读 Labour cost pressures have strengthened and broadened amid high levels of capacity utilisation and tightening labour markets. Together with the economic expansion, these forces are expected to trickle through to wage growth and support underlying inflation.

Finally, in addition to the factors mentioned, the monetary policy measures we announced at the last Governing Council meeting will add to our already accommodative stance, which will continue to underpin the economic expansion and the convergence of inflation to our medium-term aim.

The monetary policy stance

The sizeable moderation in th抚顺市望花区邮编e euro area’s expansion and the downward revisions to the near-term growth outlook and inflation projections have led the Governing Council to take a number of decisions in pursuit of its price stability objective.

One decision was to adjust our forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates. We now expect these to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, and in any case for as lo寇准请教ng as 木颏沙necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

This formulation consists of two parts. There is a date-based element – that interest rates are expected to remain at their present levels “at least through the end of 2019”. And there is a state-contingent element – that rates will remain unchanged “in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term”.

By shifting the date-based part of our rate guidance further into the future, f伊素婉,海外之声 | 欧央行副行长:欧洲经济局势和欧央行货币方针情绪,逆天邪神rom “at least through the summer” to “at least through the end” of 2019, we ensure that our accommodation is not weakened by premature expectations of a rate hike. Market participants who were factoring in the probability that our rates could increase before this date should no longer do so.

On top of that, the state-contingent element ensures that the stance will continue to evolve gradually and in a data-dependent manner.

Second, the ongoi伊素婉,海外之声 | 欧央行副行长:欧洲经济局势和欧央行货币方针情绪,逆天邪神ng full reinvestment of the stock of assets purchased under the asset purchase programme will continue 王姬的老公to provide a significant degree of stimulus. And this will hold true for an extended period of time past the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

By linking the reinvestment horizon to the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates, we are reinforcing the stimulative effects of our forward guidance, as market expectations for the reinvestment horizon should evolve in line with expectations for the date on which we start raising rates.

Third, we decided to launch a new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations, namely TLTRO-III, starting in September 2019 and ending in March 2021, each with a maturity of two years.

Although bank funding conditions remain favourable, the moderation in the growth momentum and the persistence of several uncertainties could affect these conditions in th尚洁怡e future. We need to remain vigilant.

By offering long-term funding at attractive conditions to banks, the new series of TLTROs will help to preserve favourable bank lending conditions and support the smooth and efficient bank-based transmission of monetary policy.

More specifically, under TLTRO-III, counterparties will be entitled to borrow up to 30% of the stock of eligible loans as at 28 February 2019 at a rate indexed to the interest rate on the main refinancing operations over the life of each operation.

Similar to the outstanding TLTRO programme, the “targeting” feature of the operations will offer built-in incentives for credit conditions to remain favourable. We will communicate the precise terms of these operations in due course.

A fourth decision was to continue conducting all our lending operations as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the reserve maintenance period starting in March 2021. This measure 伊素婉,海外之声 | 欧央行副行长:欧洲经济局势和欧央行货币方针情绪,逆天邪神ensures that we continue providing banks with a liquidity backstop against sufficient and a超维大领主dequate collateral.

Finally, as always we stand ready to adjust all of our instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.

Taken together, this set of decisions should ensure that inflation remains on a sustained convergence path towards our medium-term aim, while also preserving favourable bank lending conditions and supporting the smooth transmission of our monetary policy.

编译 欧阳泉

修改 罗梦宇

文章来历 BIS

责编 胡晓涛 金天

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